1 Month Outlook for Metals

"Gold gets dug out of a ground. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head. "

-Warren Buffet

Metals are off big time from highs reached about four years ago. The last 3 months in particular have seen steady declines in prices.

To generate probabilities on what the next 1 month looks like, EidoSearch looked at the current 3 month price trends in Gold as well as a broader All Metals Index from Morningstar. By finding similar matches in the path and trading behavior in both over the past 3 months, and seeing how the markets have reacted many times historically to similar conditions, we’re able to provide a range of probable outcomes for the next month.

1 month Outlook for Morningstar Metals Commodity Index

We found 60 similar matches dating back to 1980, and the Index is up 70% of the time in the next 1 month an average of 2.7%.

1 month Outlook for Gold

We found 41 similar matches dating back to the 1960’s, and the Gold is up 68.3% of the time in the next 1 month an average of 3.2%. There are only two instances out of the 41 that are down over 1% in the next 1 month. Shoot us a note if you’re interested in the time periods of these two analogs.

Have a great week!