Which airline stock is most likely to continue soaring with recent drop in Crude?

Oil has seen a steady decline from its peak at $110 on September 6th through Friday’s close at around $100. Airline stocks have jumped about 10% during that period, and the question many investors are asking is will the run up continue and what stocks are likely to outperform?

EidoSearch looked at the trading pattern in Crude Oil since September 6th, to identify 55 highly correlated occurrences of this 5 week pattern over the past 20 years. We then looked at the 4 Airline Stocks (Delta, US Airways, United Continental, Southwest) to see what stock(s) outperformed in the next one month period historically.

US Airways was the clear winner, with an average absolute return of 8%.

Crude (CL) price since September 6th

US Airways (LCC) Stock performance 1 month after this pattern in crude has occurred historically

United Continental (UAL) Stock performance 1 month after this pattern in crude has occurred historically

Southwest (LUV) Stock performance 1 month after this pattern in crude has occurred historically

Delta (DAL) Stock performance 1 month after this pattern in crude has occurred historically