Amazon Surprises…What’s Next?

"It’s not an experiment if you know it’s going to work."

-Jeff Bezos

Amazon’s (AMZN) shares surged more than 14% on Friday amid analyst excitement about the results from Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud-computing platform. The stock rose modestly into the release, as investors seemed to anticipate favorable news, and then popped. The question is, after this move, how do people tend to react next? Is it a good time to build a larger position or trim?

Our numeric search engine (based in the Amazon cloud) sifts through millions of historic conditions in seconds to quantify the range of likely outcomes today. Specifically, we looked for times when Amazon had a modest run up into an earnings release and then popped the next day after announcement. What tends to happen in the following week? We ran the search, results below.

Five similar matches in Amazon’s history:

Average return of -1.8% in the next five days across the set of similar matches:

As always please reach out should you want to dive deeper.

Have a great week!