Kellogg’s ready to “POP”?

Since the government shutdown began last week, we’ve heard discussion from investors about a move into defensive stocks and specifically to Consumer Staples. We looked at some of these companies today to see if there were price patterns, that based on similar historical occurrences, were likely to outperform and provide another driver for investment consideration. Kellogg was tops on the list.

We looked at the price pattern for Kellogg (K) over the past 12 months, which is up for the year but off 10% from it’s high on July 22nd. We then searched all Consumer stocks for the past 40 years (minimum $2B mkt cap) that exhibited a similar pattern for any 12 month period. In 37 of the 49 most similar historical occurrences, the stocks had a positive return over the next one month period and the average return of all 49 was 3.41%. We’ve attached the 1 month forward projection below for review.

To trigger further idea generation, we’ve attached a 2nd chart which shows the 3 Consumer stocks that currently have the most closely correlated one year pattern to Kellogg (K): Energizer (ENR), ConAgra Foods (CAG) and Hillshire Brands (HSH).

1 Month Forward Projection for Kellogg

3 Most Similar Current Price Patterns to Kellogg