A Budding Romance: Finance and AI

The VIX in One Month?

"Markets Love Volatility"

-Christine Lagarde

The VIX was up 16% last week, as the S&P 500 dropped for 4 straight days before recovering with a modest gain on Friday with a little help from Janet Yellen. It was the worst week for the U.S. market since January. Once again though, the Fed is coming to the rescue of stocks. Her

Good Time to Go Defensive vs. Cyclical?

"I think you’re the greatest, but my Dad says you don’t work hard enough on defense."

-Quote from Joey (young kid) to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Airplane, 1980

The Consumer sectors continue to perform well. Over the past 6 months, tracking Morningstar Sector Indices, Cyclical and Defensive stocks are the 3rd and 4th best performing sectors, trailing only Real Estate and Healthcare (see table below). When comparing the two, Cyclical stocks have outperformed Defensive stocks by about 5.2% over this period of time

Second Annual “Alpha Innovation Required” Summit A Success

The true focus of the AIR Summit was the presentations made by the twenty-one hand-picked financial technology vendors (including EidoSearch). Each of these vendors represented a few macro trends The major menace involves the case of pressure in the bile viagra 50mg and pancreatic ducts. In the cialis tadalafil case of Inexpensive Kamagra however, the

An Edge in Forecasting Volatility (HOG and NTAP)

"Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value."

- Jeremy Grantham

Volatility is making a come-back. For 2013, and the first 3 quarters of 2014, volatility was so muted it reached levels not seen since the pre-crash levels in 2006 and 2007. Then we had the October market pull back where the VIX reached a two year high of 22 and it has been in an

Will Lumber’s Decline Continue to Boost Home Builders?

"Ahh, home crap home!"

-Tom Hanks as Walter Fielding, The Money Pit (1986)

It seems to reason that when lumber prices are dropping, that Home Builders become more profitable and their stock prices perform better. On October 6th of last year, lumber prices stood at around $350.20 when they started to fall precipitously. The drop in prices has continued for the last five months, and through Friday’s close

Major Move Happening in This Sector in March

"Follow the trend lines, not the headlines."

-Bill Clinton

Headlines provide great information on the current conditions of a company. Good and bad news, or important events can drive extreme moves in a stock price in the short term. The problem is, everyone is able to consume the same information at the same time and nowadays it is difficult to get any edge with

Quantifying Turning Points

"Never give up, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn."

-Harriet Beecher Stowe

A year ago, on February 24th, 2014, zulily Inc (ZU) reported their first revenue and earnings results since going public in November of 2013. The results exceeded expectations, and the stock price jumped from $42.84 to $72.75 in just 3 days. After a great start, the stock has been in a free fall since, closing

The S&P at an All-Time High….and Going Higher?

"Phil Connors (Bill Murray): Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster?
Mrs. Lancaster: I don’t think so, but I could check with the kitchen."

-Groundhog Day, 1993

Here we go again. The S&P 500 ended 2013 at an all-time high, sitting at 1,848 on December 31st of that year. It was still around that level last January 22nd, at 1,844, when the markets got spooked and the S&P dropped 6% over the next couple weeks. But, by mid-February, the market was back

“Appetizing” Comps for Earnings Jumps

"Can I borrow your towel for a sec? My car just hit a water buffalo."

-Chevy Chase in Fletch, 1985

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) reported earnings after market close this past Thursday that missed expectations. How badly was the stock beaten up on Friday? The stock price jumped up close to $13, or 7%. Although net earnings for the quarter were flat vs. a year ago, investors were more interested in the solid growth story.

Crude’s impact on the S&P this year

"We aren’t addicted to Oil but our cars are."

-James Woolsey

There’s been a lot of discussion about the trajectory of the drop in Crude Oil prices from a high of $106 in June to the low of $44 reached last week. Is it good or bad for the economy and for the broad U.S. stock market? Heading into Q4, on the heels of 5% growth