Tesla’s Model 3

"I’m always to some degree wrong. And the aspiration is to be less wrong…trying to minimize the wrongheadedness over time. "

-Elon Musk

Elon Musk plans to unveil the every-man Model 3 on March 31st, and your reaction alone won’t move Tesla’s stock price. What really matters is how the market might react. Our forecast for Tesla shows a wide range of potential returns. One year out the stock has a 70% probability of landing within the range of up 42.5% and down -36.8%.

The tails on the full distribution go from up 171.4% to down -84.7%. For a battery-powered vehicle, that’s an impressive range.

But you don’t have to take this uncertainty for granted. You can build on this foundation of probable outcomes, gathering information to refine your prediction. The traditional approach is to contemplate price responses to future narratives with questions like:

1. Will popularity of the Model 3 launch the stock to new heights?
2. What events could render the Nevada gigafactory useless?
3. What if Elon Musk takes a one way Space X trip to Mars?

EidoSearch complements this narrative approach. Our engine can ingest any numeric dataset to generate an initial range of outcomes. Then you can iterate through various scenarios via our API’s to refine measures of uncertainty and maximize information and accuracy.

Elon clarified it is “probably more likely than not, but that’s a complete guess” when contemplating the likelihood of other intelligent life in the universe. If he can provide a probabilistic statement about extraterrestrial life, we can do the same and with greater accuracy about Tesla. Reach out to learn more about our approach.

Have a great week.